Appendix 1

4

• More than a 75% chance of occurrence.
• Regular occurrence.
• Circumstances frequently encountered.

• Favourable outcome is likely to be achieved in one year.
• Better than 75% chance of occurrence.

3

• 41% - 75% chance of occurrence.
• Likely to happen at some point in the next 3 years.
• Circumstances occasionally encountered.

• Reasonable prospects of favourable results in one year.
• 41% - 75% chance of occurrence.

2

• 10% - 40% chance of occurrence.
• Only likely to happen once every 3 or more years.
• Circumstances rarely encountered.

• Some chance of favourable outcome in medium term.
• 10% - 40% chance of occurrence.

1

• Less than a 10% chance of occurrence.
• Has never happened before.
• Circumstance never encountered.

• Less than a 10% chance of occurrence.

4

• Major loss of service for more than 5 days.

• One or more fatalities.

• Major financial variation of more than £200k.

• Major national news item.

• Major impact on time / costs / resources.

• Affect the whole Council.

• Major improvement to services, generally or across a broad range.

• Major improvement to health, welfare and safety.

• Positive national press, national award or recognition, elevated status by national government.

• Producing more than £50,000

3

• Loss of service for 3 to 5 days.

•  Major injury to an individual / several people.

• Financial variation between £100k and £200k.

• Major local news / professional press item.

• Serious impact on time / costs / resources.

• Affect many service areas of the Council.

•  Major improvement to critical service area.

• Serious improvement to health, welfare and safety.

• Recognition of successful initiative.

• Sustained positive recognition and support from local press.

• Producing up to £50,000.

2

• Loss of service for 2 to 3 days.
• Severe injury to an individual / several people.
• Financial variation of £50k to £100k.
• Local news / minor professional press items
• Controllable impact on time / costs / resources.
• Affect 1 or few service areas of the Council.

• Significant improvement to service area.
• Significant improvement to health, welfare and safety.
• Recognition of successful initiative. 
• Positive recognition and support from local press.  

1

• Brief disruption to service for less than 1 day.
• Minor injury to an individual.
• Financial variation of less than £50k.
• Minimal news / press impact.
• Minimal impact on time / costs / resources.
• Affect Project Team only.

• Improvement to a process within a service area.