2. An East Kent Perspective

2.1 The East Kent market

The four East Kent authorities border the districts of Swale and Ashford. They cover an area of 420 square miles and have a combined population of 463,000.

Although there are considerable variations within East Kent, generally speaking, it is characterised by:

Relatively low land values compared with the rest of the South East (less so for areas such as Canterbury and Sandwich)
Common coastal characteristics – poor quality housing, low levels of investment, high levels of private rented accommodation, economic and social decline
An ageing population, with higher than average numbers of older people
A higher than average number of vulnerable people
A low skill, low wage economy that is perceived as less dynamic than other parts of Kent.

75% of East Kent’s 196,000 homes are owner-occupied. 12% are rented from the local authorities or a Registered Social Landlord (RSL). The remaining 13% are rented in the private sector.

East Kent Market

2.2 Affordable housing

Within East Kent, it is the local authorities that are the major social landlords with a combined total of 16,709 affordable homes. RSLs provide a further 10,000 affordable homes.

However, the Right to Buy has seen stock levels across East Kent decline significantly (see Table 2), and a disproportionate number of two and three-bedroom homes have been sold over the last 28 years (the East Kent authorities owned approximately 30,000 homes in 1980).

Table 2 - Right to Buy sales for five years to March 2008

Year	Canterbury	Dover	Shepway	Thanet	Total
2002-03	94	122	84	77	377
2003-04	72	144	79	71	366
2004-05	41	65	26	46	178
2005-06	18	27	18	24	87
2006-07	23	24	18	23	88
2007-2008	20	22	1	17	60
Total	268	404	226	258	1156

This situation has been compounded by the comparatively low number of new affordable homes provided by RSLs in East Kent over the last six years (See Table 3).

Table 3 - RSL completions for five years to March 2008

Year	Canterbury	Dover	Shepway	Thanet	Total
2002-03	31	18	21	20	90
2003-04	53	29	84	12	178
2004-05	53	65	58	12	188
2005-06	42	26	40	53	161
2006-07	56	64	16	31	167
2007-2008	69	15	39	44	167
Total	304	217	258	172	951

To place this further into perspective, data from individual housing needs assessments undertaken individually by the East Kent authorities between 2002 and 2004 indicated a collective need for 4701 affordable homes annually over a five-year period to meet existing and projected housing need. Offset against an annual average of 1796 re-lets of existing affordable housing, this leaves an annual shortfall of 2905 affordable homes across East Kent (See Table 4)

Table 4 – Annual shortfall of affordable housing

	Canterbury	Dover	Shepway	Thanet	Total
Annual need	1219	814	1234	1434	4701
Less annual average re-lets	443	492	329	532	1796
Annual shortfall	776	322	905	902	2905

It is not surprising therefore that the private rented sector is seen to have a significant role to play in preventing homelessness, through the provision of both temporary and permanent accommodation.

2.3 Homelessness in East Kent

There has been a significant drop in the number of homelessness applications made in East Kent in the past five years (see Table 5).

Applications peaked between 2003 and 2004. This is due partly to the initial impact of the Homelessness Act 2002, which extended the category of applicant that had priority need. However, with an increasing emphasis on the prevention of homelessness through the Housing Options model of service delivery (see section 3.2), and particular initiatives such as the Rent Deposit Scheme for example (see section 3.5), the number of applications received (and those accepted) has decreased steadily over the past five years.

Table 5 - East Kent homelessness statistics 2003 – 2008

Click on chart to enlarge

The number of households accepted as homeless across East Kent peaked in 2003-2004 at 925. In the following four years this figure reduced by just over 64% to 332. It will be noted from Table 6 that the two most common causes of homelessness were eviction by a family member or friend which has risen proportionally (35% in 2003-2004 compared with 36% in 2007-2008), and also loss of rented or tied accommodation, although this has decreased proportionally by some 4%. Loss of accommodation due to relationship breakdown has also risen proportionally, however the number of homeless people leaving institutions has reduced. A breakdown of this data by individual authority is provided at appendix 2.

Table 6 – Reasons for homelessness – East Kent

Category / Year	03-04	04-05	05-06	06-07	07-08
Relatives/friends unable to accommodate	326	255	181	137	120
Relationship breakdown	52	42	37	12	39
Violence / harassment	152	128	100	57	31
Mortgage default	9	4	8	17	14
Rent arrears	43	26	21	10	23
Loss of rented or tied accommodation	235	209	124	73	71
Asylum seekers	2	0	1	3	0
Care / institution leaver	42	31	14	24	9
Other	64	34	28	12	25
Total	925	729	514	345	332

Table 7 illustrates the priority needs category for each household that was accepted as homeless. The majority of acceptances were for households with dependent children, but of significant concern, is the proportional increase in the number of 16/17 year-olds accepted as homeless (8% in 2004 to 13% in 2008). A breakdown of this data by individual authority is provided at appendix 2.

The proportion of older people has reduced by some 50%; however acceptances due to physical disability, mental illness/disability and drug/alcohol dependency have remained proportionally consistent.

Table 7 - Priority needs categories – East Kent

Category / Year	03-04	04-05	05-06	06-07	07-08
Emergency	13	5	14	2	6
Dependent children	508	380	248	143	165
Pregnancy	68	57	45	39	36
16/17 year-old	77	56	57	56	44
Care leaver aged 18-20	8	9	3	10	4
Old age	37	36	16	12	9
Physical disability	71	49	27	15	21
Mental illness / disability	74	50	34	27	29
Other (drug / alcohol dependency)	10	19	12	13	1
Vulnerable - care leaver	2	2	0	0	0
Vulnerable - HM forces	1	0	1	0	0
Vulnerable - custody / remand	12	4	1	2	2
Vulnerable - violence	44	62	57	26	15
Total	925	729	514	345	332

2.4 The key drivers

Several issues will have a significant impact on the East Kent housing market in the immediate future - and potentially therefore, levels of homelessness:

The channel tunnel domestic rail link – will access Canterbury, Dover, Folkestone and Ramsgate and will have an inevitable impact on property prices, as the districts become more attractive to investors and London becomes more accessible
The impact of the “credit crunch” – the sudden reduction in the availability of loans for new borrowers and increased mortgage costs for existing borrowers at the end of fixed-term agreements has resulted in a downward pressure on house prices and land values. There have been more repossessions as overstretched homeowners have been confronted by higher monthly payments, and demand for new homes has dropped. As a result, developers have built fewer new homes, which means that affordable housing completions have fallen significantly short of target.
The South East Plan (see section 1.3) – proposes future levels of housing provision which have significant implications for East Kent
The impact of growth within Ashford and the Thames Gateway
Changing demographics – the age distribution of the population arising from births and deaths; changing patterns of household formation due to marriage, divorce and childbirth; and the number and composition of new households arising from migration to and from the sub-region.

2.5 Accommodation-based services for homeless households in East Kent

East Kent has a limited amount of short-term accommodation for homeless people, which is unevenly distributed across the sub-region. As a result, demand is continuously in excess of supply. This is frequently compounded by a shortage of suitable permanent accommodation for service users to move on to, and consequently many will occupy short-term accommodation for far longer than necessary. This has the added disadvantage of blocking access to these limited resources for other homeless households. Table 8 summarises the short-term accommodation currently available.

Table 8 – Accommodation-based services for homeless households (by bed space) – East Kent

Service	Canterbury	Dover	Shepway	Thanet	Total
Night shelter	28	-	-	-	28
Homeless hostel	16	27	9	20	72
Single homeless (high support)	-	12	11	-	23
Women’s refuge	12	6	7	12	37
Young people	22	12	-	23	57
Move-on accommodation	18	-	-	-	18
Supported housing for homeless people	38	-	-	-	38
Supported housing – substance/alcohol misuse	13	-	11	-	24
Total	147	57	38	55	297